Recently the UK Department of Constitutional Affairs published a report into ‘The Future of Citizenship‘ (pdf, 645 kb, pages), an ambitious study which looks at how our definitions and behaviours of citizenship might change over the next 20 years.

The report outlines four possible scenarios for where we might be in 2027. The different scenarios assume different levels of economic development and civic activism.

The first ‘Global politics’ assumes that global shocks such as Climate Change lead to a global sense of responsibility and citizenship. In this scenario international agreements have a lot of public support.

Scenario 2 (’Charity begins at home’) assumes that economic growth is combined with increased civic activism, creating a scenario where philanthropism and volunteering is widespread. The downside is that much of this activity takes place within relatively closed communities and that those who refuse to get involved are vilified by the rest of society.

In scenario 3 (’Tribal politics’) the economy stagnates and society becomes increasingly fragmented. Politics becomes dominated by interest groups fiercely competing for limited resources and the interest of minorities is frequently overlooked. Civic engagement is largely reactive and limited to when ones own interests are threatened.

Lastly, scenario 4 (’Remote self’) assumes that economic growth is combined with an increasingly disengaged population. This leads to a situation where the role of the state is limited and where the gulf between haves and have nots grows without any significant public reaction. People are increasingly individualistic and uninterested in the collective good. The government is increasingly called upon to used technological fixes, such as tele-voting, to curb the disengagement of citizens.

When asked which of these scenarios were most desirable and which were most likely government policy makers said that they would prefer a combination of scenarios 1 and 2 but that they thought that scenario 4 was most likely.

(via Involve)